Middling MFN?

YoureToast · #1 10-24-2005, 03:58 PM

Last Tuesday, I bet $336 to win $300 on Atlanta -6.5 vs. NYJ. The line is now available at -7.5. Should I bet the Jets +7.5, shooting for a middle? If so, whats the maximum price I should pay?

Edit: How does the analysis differ if I can get Jets +8 or +8.5?

Further edit: The game is now available at 5Dimes at +9 +105. My suspicion that the line at -6.5 was a good buy was correct. Now I need help making the proper decision.

#2 10-24-2005, 04:04 PM

You can find the Jets at +8.5 I think it's a pretty decent middle. I thought about doing it to just stop the bleeding from yesterdays ugliness, but I think I'll just stick with ATL and take it like man.

YoureToast · #3 10-24-2005, 04:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can find the Jets at +8.5 I think it's a pretty decent middle. I thought about doing it to just stop the bleeding from yesterdays ugliness, but I think I'll just stick with ATL and take it like man.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thx...See my edited post....It was edited due to your post in the other thread. At +9 +105, its gotta be good, no?

YoureToast · #4 10-24-2005, 04:09 PM

Sorry the 5Dimes line is +9 -125.

LLXC · #5 10-24-2005, 05:48 PM

Personally, if I still liked the -6.5, I wouldn't middle the entire amount. Then again, my opinion is probably not worth much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

legend42 · #6 10-24-2005, 06:28 PM

I'm in a similar situation. I have a live $200 teaser that pays almost $2400, with ATL at -1/2 as the final game, and am trying to figure out the best way to hedge/middle it.

Seems like $1000 on NYJ plus the points is pretty safe, but I can't help think the 1st half line (I've found +4.5 +105) is the best chance to win both ways. No way Vinny brings them back on the road from 5+ down at halftime to win the game outright, is there?

#7 10-24-2005, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in a similar situation. I have a live $200 teaser that pays almost $2400, with ATL at -1/2 as the final game, and am trying to figure out the best way to hedge/middle it.

Seems like $1000 on NYJ plus the points is pretty safe, but I can't help think the 1st half line (I've found +4.5 +105) is the best chance to win both ways. No way Vinny brings them back on the road from 5+ down at halftime to win the game outright, is there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Or you could bet the Jets ML for ~$500.

legend42 · #8 10-24-2005, 06:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could bet the Jets ML for ~$500.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that was the first play that came to mind- and it may end up being exactly what I do. But the middle opportunities are just so tempting here. Anyway, I'm glad I waited until today's line moves to decide.

On a side note, does anyone know if BetJamaica's site is down?

#9 10-24-2005, 07:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, does anyone know if BetJamaica's site is down?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems to be, I cant access it either.

sublime · #10 10-24-2005, 07:15 PM

Personally I think the Jets are the 'right' side so I would suggest you get the best possible number and buy back. Now -6.5 is also a great number considering what the market is and how its under the key 7.

methinks you buy back 50-75% (only because you originally liked ATL, personally I buy back 100%) of the wager, but at a good number. i can get +8.5 +100 right now, so somethign in that range would be nice.