#1
|
|||
|
|||
very simple odds question
hi guys,
i find people here very helpful and appreciate it. my question is this: odds of flopping two pairs or three of kind from 27o? (basically any non-straight, offsuit, no paired??) once i get that number, i can do an approximation for the entire table having flopped something. i find so much of the odds stuff out there is based on 5 cards coming, but seems like odds to the flop are so much more important in alot of situations. i'd really appreciate any help. thank you!! |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: very simple odds question
alright, answering my own post (although not a perfect answer)..
http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php two pair from non-paired = 49/1 or 2% 3 of a kind from 27o = 1.35% i'm certain you can't just add these #'s but i'm not sure if you'd discount the combination or bump it up. i think bump it up as once you have one pair, you have 2 chances to hit either the second pair or the three of a kind.... although for my simple purposes, i'll just add the #'s. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: very simple odds question
The combined chance that the flop hits you hard when you hold two non-paired, unsuited cards (you flop two pair, three of a kind, full house or four of a kind) is 3.47%. Or 1 in 29.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: very simple odds question
[ QUOTE ]
alright, answering my own post (although not a perfect answer).. http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php two pair from non-paired = 49/1 or 2.0% 3 of a kind from 27o = 1.35% i'm certain you can't just add these #'s [/ QUOTE ] That's funny, since I'm certain that you CAN just add these #'s. (Will you give me a million-to-1 odds then? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]). The reason is that these 2 hands are mutually exclusive, meaning that you can't flop both hands at the same time. Those percentages do not include full houses. 2-pair (72x): 3*3*44/19600 = 2.02% trips (77x or 22x): 3*2*44/19600 = 1.35% ------------------- 2-pair or trips: 2.02% + 1.35% = 3.37% full house (772 or 227): 3*3*2/19600 = 0.09% quads (777 or 222): 2/19600 = 0.01% ------------------- 2-pair or trips or full house or quads: 3.37% + 0.09% + 0.01% = 3.47% Note that the 2-pair does not include a pair on the board. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: very simple odds question
[ QUOTE ]
The combined chance that the flop hits you hard when you hold two non-paired, unsuited cards (you flop two pair, three of a kind, full house or four of a kind) is 3.47%. Or 1 in 29. [/ QUOTE ] thanks, you got the idea, was just wondering odds of your beautiful AA (or KK/QQ, but then it gets more complex) getting killed on the flop with mediocre callers? and it seems to happen alot with a decent # of callers? thanks again!! |
|
|