Live 1-2, vs tilty

Live $1-$2 NL, 10-handed

UTG is a fairly LAGgy rich kid and is one of the main reasons this game gets so good. He's straddled every round this game, typically to $7. The table's been reacting by raising to $15 with any playable hand. Straddled pots end up 2-4 handed usually.

MP2 is stuck about $1k and is tilting. He's not a great player to begin with, and makes tons of loose calls when he shouldn't. He has respect for me, though, and I haven't noticed him getting too out of line when I'm in a pot.

UTG (~$200)
MP2 (~$250)
Hero (~$500)

Hero is MP3 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Preflop:
UTG straddles to $7, folds, MP2 raises to $15, Hero calls, folds, UTG calls

UTG defends his straddle 125% of the time against a min-raise. MP2 says, "Oh, Hero's in?"

Flop: ($32) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $25, UTG folds, MP2 calls

Turn: ($82) Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
MP2 checks, Hero bets $60, MP2 deliberates saying "I'm drawing" and eventually calls

River: ($202) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
MP2 checks, Hero checks

[orange]

I think I check the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 says, "Oh, Hero's in?"

MP2 deliberates saying "I'm drawing"

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like an Actor. He was trying to make you feel if the river didnt look like a flush you where safe to bet.

A small bet is good on the turn, it lets him think he can count on you for a bet on the river for one final check raise.

You get to see his hand free if you miss, or take his stack with your nut flush vs trip aces if you hit.

[4_2_it]

I think your line is fine. I think a $30 or $40 bet on the turn gets the same result.

MP2 either has an A with a bad kicker or something like K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and hoping to connect. Maybe just a Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] if he is tilting badly.

Did you get any thought to betting something on the river or is MP2 such a calling station that he calls with any ace (in which case checking behind makes sense)?

Well his range preflop is probably something like big offsuit A, almost any suited A, any pair, KQ, KJs, and a bunch of suited connectors.

He would call the river with any A if he had it, but I think he would have played differently with one. He actions to the river suggest a draw, but I include any pair drawing to two pair/trips as something he would draw to, so a 7 isn't entirely unreasonable. By the time the river comes, there's a small chance he has AK, but its less likely given the way he played. A set of T or Q is possible also, but I think I would have seen some action on the turn from this player.

I seriously considered value-betting the river. How much would be a good range for a river bet here?

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]

I seriously considered value-betting the river. How much would be a good range for a river bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

$75-$100 makes sense to me. If you get raised, I think you can lay it down knowing you are beaten.