Call the river?

Hawkeye27 · #1 01-11-2005, 05:45 PM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (7.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, CO folds, Hero calls.

River: (11.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.20 BB

UTG's stats 45/6.5/.46

J.R. · #2 01-11-2005, 05:49 PM

yes.

PokerNoob · #3 01-11-2005, 06:14 PM

A checkraise there from a loose passive after you've raised, raised and bet has got to be a ten, a big slowplay that beats you, a bluff or an idiot. I don't think many people bluff at this, because of the usual turn eight or more outer call followed by the "call one on the river and show the world your bad luck" factor. I don't think its 12:1 he's bluffing or has a worse hand. I'd fold too.

applej25 · #4 01-11-2005, 06:21 PM

I go ahead and call, though I'm not expecting to win I think there is definitely a 1 in 12 chance you are ahead.

J.R. · #5 01-11-2005, 06:23 PM

True, but the poster is asking. He apparently is not as comfortable extrapolating those PT stats into the nice "this guy is LP and can't have a worse hand here read", so he should call, testing out the theory, and become better at translating PT stats into usuable reads. Otherwise there is no point to the post cause he'd feel comfrotable with his PT numbers. IMO you have to learn how to make reads like this based on experience, not what other people think about a situtation in which they weren't involved, and this case is still somewhat close.

applej25 · #6 01-11-2005, 06:30 PM

Yes, but perhaps even more important is to make the decision based on the odds. Does he think the opponent would make this play on him with a worse hand 1 in 12 times? If so than its a call based on odds alone. This goes hand in hand with what you are saying but the greater the odds, the less certain you have to be.

Hawkeye27 · #7 01-11-2005, 06:30 PM

This is my third try at 5/10 6(max). I am questioning everything and anything.

J.R. · #8 01-11-2005, 06:43 PM

all the more reason to pay off in close spots and get a better feel for how this particular game is played, and how this particular opponent plays. IMO this is a thin call but, for both your psyche and the continued improvement of your hand reading skills, one I'd pay off in your shoes.

girgy44 · #9 01-11-2005, 07:33 PM

call

PokerNoob · #10 01-11-2005, 09:24 PM

There are some metagame considerations to both folding and calling. If you fold, people think either you were overplaying something leading them to possibly call more of your raises, or that you can be pushed off hands, leading them to bluff more against you. After folding here, I wouldn't fold another close one at this table. If you call, you will appear unbluffable, even in the face of an "obvious ten", if that is what your opponent shows. That in itself may be worth a BB. Its been my experience at 5/10 that the vast majority of hands like this get shown down. Your actions scream you have at least a very good two pair hand, your opponent can't reasonably expect you not to show it down, because you will see the river card for both boat and chop outs, and once you see the river you're getting twelve to one on that last bet. All this, of course, assumes your opponents are thinking rationally and noticing what you do.