Tournament EV question

[slickpoppa]

I posted this question in the MTT section, but didn't get any answers. Someone suggested that the problem is unsovlvable, but I am not convinced:

In a tournament with equally skilled opponents, the probability of a player finsishing 1st equals his fraction of the chips. But in order to calculate money EV, you need to know a player's probability of finishing in 2nd, 3rd, etc. So how would you calculate these probababilities?
For example, with 4 player left with the following chips fractions (A=.1, B=.2, C=.3, D=.4), what is the probality of each finishing in 2nd, 3rd and 4th?

[eastbay]

This has been hashed to death. There are no strictly correct answers, only a few reasonable models.

Search for "independent chip model" for the most popular and straightforward approach. Or maybe "ICM". There's even a web site out there which put an interface on a program I wrote to calculate this awhile back.

eastbay

[slickpoppa]

Thanks, I didn't realize it had been discussed ad nauseum because I didn't follow tourney posts until recently.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks, I didn't realize it had been discussed ad nauseum because I didn't follow tourney posts until recently.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's fine. The SnG players are the ones who understand this idea on a level most MTT will never bother with, because it is central to crushing the SnGs, whereas it is of lesser importance in MTT, and can be impractical to compute for large field sizes due to the combinatorics involved.

You want to know about final table equity, go to the SnG forum.

eastbay

[M.B.E.]

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