#1
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Overcards on the flop
I'm sure you guys have this at your fingertips. Sorry if it's been asked earlier...
What's the right way to calculate the probability of overcards hitting the flop? That is, if you have TT in the pocket, what's the probability that an overcard (J,Q, K or A) will hit the flop? Thanks in advance. J |
#2
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Re: Overcards on the flop
One way:
1-((50-16)/50)*((49-16)/49)*((48-16)/48)=0.694693878 This is the probability of 1 or more overcards. Edit: this is for the specific case of TT (16 overcards). Note that even if you flop an overcard, you will sometimes also flop a set or better, so you're in good shape more often than this probability indicates. |
#3
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Re: Overcards on the flop
Here's a table for all PP and the probability that an over card will flop.
p = 1 - (50-n choose 3)/(50 choose 3) where n is number over overcards AA 0 KK 0.225510204 QQ 0.414285714 JJ 0.569591837 TT 0.694693878 99 0.792857143 88 0.867346939 77 0.921428571 66 0.958367347 55 0.981428571 44 0.993877551 33 0.998979592 22 1 |
#4
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Re: Overcards on the flop
Thanks, guys. 'preciate it.
J |
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