AT - 4 to flush

POKhER · #1 10-08-2005, 06:51 AM

70/34/1.4

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero Hasn't got a clue what to do...

6.5:1 to call, 4 to the flush... heads up.

King/5/anyspade beats me, 3+2+8 = 13cards beat me?

Or should i bet river and fold to raise?>

#2 10-08-2005, 07:03 AM

This sucks. I think most villains with a brain would take a stab at this pot if they had no spades so its difficult to lay it down. On the other hand. What did he call with? I think either bet fold or check fold(eventhough he will stab at it).

#3 10-08-2005, 07:22 AM

Hes loose so is in there with just about any 2, including weaker tens that he assumes will be chopped with the K on the board. I think the problem here is that completely regardless of what he has, he is 100% betting that river.

For example, look at his stats and consider 4h4d and QsJh. Both make perfect sense.

I really do think you are ahead a decent proportion of the time here, but im not sure you have 6.5-1. An extra 2-3 bets in the pot either way and your decision would be obvious.

I think a fold is every so slightly more ev, but in game i would certainly call because if i didnt i wouldnt stop thinking about the hand.

And i think your lines are definitely check/call or check/fold, he isnt going to pay you off with too many hands here.

xenthebrain · #4 10-08-2005, 09:12 AM

He could have any two cards. Just call.

#5 10-08-2005, 09:36 AM

You have to treat this guy as any two played. You're right. 13 cards beat you. But because he can have either one of his two cards in that 13 =
44 unseen (52 - 5table - hero's2 - villian's 1 other card)

13\44 + 13\44 = 26\44 = 59% he holds one of those cards.

Fold.[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

If you had top pair [10+10\44 - 45%], it's a call.

Against a different villian, I bet\fold.
There's no chance of having to pay off two bets here - there's no risk - he raises, you fold.
Against a tougher opponent you'll make up the 9% defecit when he folds his K or small flush.

POKhER · #6 10-08-2005, 09:40 AM

Cool, i did fold but it sucked doing it. I really want to learn that fancy maths(well hardly fancy, but is very helpfull).

Cheers all.

adsman · #7 10-08-2005, 09:48 AM

A couple of things. Firstly, raise preflop. ATs is a great hand, it will often hit a flop, it doesn't matter that you have crap position, this is a value raise.

More importantly, there is a little rule called Clarkmiesters Theorm. It goes something like this;

"When Heads-up on the river and you are first to act and there are 4 of one suit on the board, bet."

So bet the river.

#8 10-08-2005, 09:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You have to treat this guy as any two played. You're right. 13 cards beat you. But because he can have either one of his two cards in that 13 =
44 unseen (52 - 5table - hero's2 - villian's 1 other card)

13\44 + 13\44 = 26\44 = 59% he holds one of those cards.

Fold.

If you had top pair [10+10\44 - 45%], it's a call.

Against a different villian, I bet\fold.
There's no chance of having to pay off two bets here - there's no risk - he raises, you fold.
Against a tougher opponent you'll make up the 9% defecit when he folds his K or small flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wha?? Sorry i dont get this at all!

Your saying there is only a 59% chance he has you beat? So you should fold?

If you win 41% of the time and you get 6?-1 (i forgot) on your money its insanely +ev. am i missing something here?

POKhER · #9 10-08-2005, 10:02 AM

Yeh my position sucked for the raise(hence i didnt).

I'm familiar with clarks theory but on party beginner tables Vs Donks i didn't feel it would be affective.

Eskimo - Lol yeh you might be right actually, I didnt bring pot size into consideration after seeing the percentage we lost.

#10 10-08-2005, 10:05 AM

Post deleted by Kwazzie