Pot odds decision??

[Whitey]

Final table of $20 multi on Stars.

8 plys left and the chips are spread around pretty evenly between the remaining players.I think 2 plyrs had 80k,I have 40k lowest is about 25k.

Blinds are 1k/2k with a 200 ante.

Folded to me 2 off the button and I make a steal raise with A2 offsuit.(3x the BB)The player in the BB is incredibly tight and I have no doubt that she will fold everything except a large pair or AK.

Folded to the BB who reraises me the minimum (dam [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img])

Now I know this means one of two things, AA or KK.(I believe she would only call with AK and see the flop) The dilemma is the pot has just over 24k in it and its costing me 6k to try and flop an ace.(I think I'm correct in saying this will happen 1 in 4 times?? Obviously only if she has KK)


Should I call??

[Jon Matthews]

If you think that calling is an option so that you can flop an ace, then you should fold. If you think that calling is an option and that you can steal on the flop then you should call.

The chances that you'll flop an ace is 3/48 + 3/47 + 3/46 = 0.19 roughly, so 1 in 5 times or 1:4 odds.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Now I know this means one of two things, AA or KK.(I believe she would only call with AK and see the flop)

Why such a tight, narrow read? Are you that tight a raiser?

[Whitey]

Hi Kurn

No I'm not that tight but she was.

Several times this person has either shown her monster or stated she has layed down a pair to a raise.I have been on the same table as her since we were down to 3 tables and I really believe her to be this tight.

[Whitey]

I'll try and clarify a few things about my read.

I am confident that if the player in question had a PP such as QQ-99 of possibly AKs she would have just moved in on me.

The only hands she would make a mini raise with would be AA or KK.

As stated previously AK offsuit would prob mean just a call.

So IF I flop an ace with no king I think she would lead out then fold to my inevitable reraise with KK.If she had AA and the case ace hit the flop then I probably bust out.

So should I call??

Results posted in white below:

<font color="white"> I thought for a while and folded thinking that with over 30k in chips I still had time to wait for a better spot rather than get a compulsory call the next time I moved in.She showed me KK and I'm still not sure wether I made the right decision. </font>

[nolanfan34]

Nice read on her, and a nice fold too. Assuming your read was correct, I'd fold too. Min-raises late in the game are BEGGING to be called.

I like the steal try, but A2 isn't a hand I want to call a reraise with. Hope you fared well the rest of the way.