Getting 3-bet, EV calculations, a signifigant leak.

[OrianasDaad]

I played a hand today, and after studying it, I thought I'd post my mathematical breakdown of it.

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in late position. My three opponents are:
SB: Slightly loose and passive, 27/2.
BB: Extremely loose, plays every hand. 80/2
Button: Loose and passive. 43/3

The board comes 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and it is checked around to the turn, which is T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The pot is 2BB.

It's checked to the BB who bets. I've seen the BB make real-estate bets in the past with any hand to pick up unwanted pots. I have to calculate EV for calling and raising. As I'm still learning the math, I only consider the overall range of hands my opponents might have, and my all-in odds of winning.

Win: .467
Loss: .533

Calling: .467(3) + .533(-1) = +.868 BB
Raising: .467(4) + .533(-2) = +.802 BB

Calling is more EV if it were heads up, but I suspect that any extra money put in by a cold-caller here would make raising more +EV.

I do, in fact, raise. The button and small blind fold, and the BB reraises. I can now assume that 2nd pair is no good. The pot now has 7BB in it.

Win: .1114
Loss: .8816

Call: -.1018 BB
Raise: -.872 BB

I do call, although folding is the better option in retrospect.

The turn misses my 5-out draw and I fold to another bet from BB.

How often is a raise/fold line on the turn in a small pot correct? One could argue that the EV on the call on the turn is only slightly negative, and you don't want to be bet off too many pots later by others' observing this line.

I guess it would depend on your opponents. How observant are they really? Most texts recommend calling a raise if you bet, but clearly some situations are -EV.

In this situation it was correct to raise, and then fold to a 3-bet from a mathematical point of view. Surely a weird circumstance.

Comments?