River bet 4 value?

[OnkelHotte]

villian was pretty loose VP$IP35 and passive postflop af 1.1

the ace and the 3rd club scared me. value bet on the river?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

[crunchy1]

Yes (assuming you raised PF, and bet the flop and turn).

[BWebb]

100% of the time.

[krimson]

The third club is almost meaningless. The ace might have helped him but i'd be inclined to believe he would bet out with an ace. This is a value bet, he is going to call down with hands like 77, etc.

[OnkelHotte]

thanks...u approved what i was already thinking!

thx!

[Bodhi]

The only thing I have to add is that a flush is even less likely here because it would be a backd-door flush. Be even more inclined to bet river-scare cards if they only complete a back-door draw.

[Nick C]

The river card is in fact a bad one for you. For one thing, you could have been getting called down by A3, A4, or A9. And, if so, well, you just got outdrawn and are about to get checkraised. A (not especially likely) hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is also getting ready to checkraise.

Also, the appearance of the ace (versus a PFR) may make Villain less willing to call the river with the J9, 98, and 77 type hands that he'll often have.

Still, I think you'll get called by a worse hand often enough and you should bet. (And, unless you've seen your fairly passive opponent bluff-raising river scare cards, I think you should probably fold if you get checkraised.)

[OnkelHotte]

sure) that was only a very small benefit to the ***ing ace^^

[Bodhi]

He checked his Ace? What a dumbass.

[Nick C]

I should add that another thing that makes the ace more problematic than an ace on the river sometimes is is that on a (previously) raggy board like this one, it's easier for Villain to be chasing overcards.

Then again, it is also easier for him to have been hanging on with a pocket pair.

Anyway, though, that ace is an unwelcome card on the river.