variance or what?

[bolgenmod]

As many of you regulars on this forum know, I play in a weekly low stakes (.5-1) limit home game (all holdem) with regulars for about 2 years now. It's the usual mix of a couple of calling stations, one absolute maniac, one bluffmeister, a few decent but way too loose players. There's usually little raising preflop (about one in every five hands), but the raiser is as likely to have pocket 6s, A-Jo, or 7-4 (EVERYONE but me raises with this hand) as pocket aces or queens.

We play 8 handed (sometimes 6-7) and VERY slowly: I can't convince them to use two decks and our host is prone to getting himself another drink (which takes 5 minutes) during which we wait for him. (Annoying, I know, but he's a good guy otherwise.) So we do a max of 3 orbits or so an hour (24 hands). And lately we've been playing only 3-4 hours max. So we're talking maybe 100 hands in an evening. Probably less.

Now this is clearly a social game, not one for big profit (the big winners cash out with about $50, double the buy-in). And I enjoy playing with my friends. But the last 3 or more months have been totally frustrating: I've only gotten down to the felt about twice, but I've also not cashed out ahead more than twice, both times for a measly few bucks.

Since early June, I've been taking a good hard look at my game, trying to see where I'm going wrong. And I'm pretty stumped. (Yes, I reread a few books: GSIH and SSHE among them. I even reread Jones WLLH!) The cards have been running cold for me too: tonight we played 3 hours and the best hands I saw all night were KJ, once suited, once offsuit. I also saw pairs of 2s, 3s and 8s. A9o once. Kxs once. I limped with all these (no raises), won once with KJ, lost once with KJ after flopping top two (straight came on river), folded the rest after betting (none would have won). Cashed out with $21, $4 down. Typical of these last months, maybe even better. (In the last 5 sessions, I've seen TT, QQ, AK, KQ once each. All other hands have been significantly worse: one night the two best hands I saw were 33 and ATs!)

This is how my game goes: tonight the tightest player in the game raised PF -- I've never seen her raise pf with anything but AA and KK. Two callers (not me: I had my usual 92o!). K on flop, two suited. She bets. One fold, one call -- I assume the caller is idiot: she (pf raiser) must now have trips or overpair. Turn blank: bet, call. River completes flush draw: bet, call. The caller turns over KK, she sheepishly turns over 74 for a flush! Stupid 74! EVERYONE raises on that! Three hands later, I fold 74 -- the only person at the table who would. There is a raise behind me. Flop brings a 7, turn a 4. Much merriment -- 74 they all shout, assuming the pf raiser must have that! River is a 4. Raiser turns over AJs for nut flush. I laugh, reach in muck, not unknown in this game, but I NEVER do it!, and say -- nope 74 was mine. They all berate me for my "stupid" play of folding 74!

I believe I am playing ok. To be specific: with no raise (and I know who is most likely to raise and always sit to the left of the maniac LAG), I call with a range that includes medium suited connectors (ep down to 67, lp all), decent suited kings and queens (down to 6 for k, 8 for q)), all suited aces and unsuited aces down to A8, any pair. I raise pf with only AA, AK, KK, QQ, JJ, and KQs (with the occassional raise of TT/AQs/AJs thrown in -- if the situation is right, I'll open raise in CO or on the button with something like ATo or 7s.) Not that I've been seeing these quality hands much lately.

On the flop, I bet/call/raise if I have TPGK or better or a great draw (open-ended straight or nut or k/q flush draw). I bet/raise/call with a decent medium pair (or pockets better than medium). If I have the odds for a weaker draw (for example, bottom pair with a backdoor nut flush draw with an overcard), I call a flop bet in lp. Etc.

So I play my good cards, and then the flop gives me nothing. Example: I call four limpers in CO with KQ diamonds (Yes, maybe I should raise, but I know NO ONE, much less four limpers and the blinds, will fold to my raise (Family pot! I'm already in!), so I decide to just see the flop). Flop is 2s5c6c. SB bets, BB calls, fold, raise, coldcall, etc. I fold. And indeed would not have won.

One hates to be results-oriented, but 90% of my judgment calls have been validated: I was beat on the flop or my very weak draws (for which I did not have the odds) did not pan out. And the times I "would have won" if I had made a loose call are few: I call with pocket 3s, flop brings something like K75 rainbow. Bet and 2 calls (pot is 7 sb at this point.) I fold. Turn brings a 3. Whatever. I can't call with an underpair at 7-1.

I do bet when I think I might have something, middle pair or whatever. Tonight on the button I call 3 limpers with an 89s. Flop is JJ9, 2 flush, not my suit. Checked to me, so I bet. SB and one limper call. Turn is a K. Checked to me, I bet. SB calls. River is a blank, no flush. SB checks, I bet. He turns over J (with an offsuit 6 kicker!) for trips. SB is usually an aggressive player: I thought he didn't have the J because he would have raised (he usually does!). I even asked him: why didn't you raise? I don't know, he said, I thought you had a flush draw! (In which case, if I had been in his shoes, I certainly would have raised! And I have certainly seen him raise with less than trips, especially if he was afraid of the flush!)

Anyway, I'm not trying to whine or complain about "bad beats": with one horrible exception, I haven't had any bad beats. (OK: does this count? I had pocket aces, trip aces on the rainbow flop beat by pocket queens getting runner-runner queens: you can imagine the carnage with caps on all streets, with two callers -- inside straight draws -- besides me and queen-man until the river!). Instead of bad beats, I have the death of a thousand cuts: I call a flop bet with top pair but fold on the turn to a draw or two that have come in (and am not wrong). Or I have the nut flush draw on the flop with five callers who call to the river. No flush, no pair for me, so I fold the river; one or two weak pair for them.

To me, it seems that I just don't have the cards or even the draws lately. So I ask: could it be variance? Let's pretend that we play about 150 hands a week and that this has been happening for 15 weeks (both estimates much higher for the sake of even-ness). That's 2250 hands at an absolute max. I know the internetboyz scoff at such a sample: TOO SMALL. So is it variance?

I still haven't lost what I've won from this game. But I do not like to lose. And everyone says that a loose game like this is SOOO easy to beat...

I've read all the threads about playing against the loose players. I see where you can pound them with your superior skills -- in fact, about 70% of the pots I've won lately were with semibluff bet/raises with middle pair with flush/straight draws. But isn't it possible that the cards can run so badly that that you cannot win?

So it all comes down to this: is it me or the cards? And if it's me, fine. Then what the hell can I do to improve my game?

[Lottery Larry]

You obviously don't understand the Zen of poker....

If you reject The Power of Four, the poker gods will never reward you (how much more of a wake-up call did you NEED? The sign was blinking right in your face!)

Seems like you're playing the cards more than the people. I only play tourneys, so take that into consideration, but abuse those limpers and tight players by raising. If you come in, come in for a raise or fold it. Even raising with a measly 7-8 suited in late position will set you up for a steal on the flop if the other guy doesn't hit it.

Play the players, not always the cards.

[DavidC]

Are you allowed to buy in more than once. If so, NEVER go to the felt.

Edit: Also, post the hands in the micros forum.

Re-Edit:
[ QUOTE ]
But isn't it possible that the cards can run so badly that that you cannot win?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

But in your case, they can only run this long for a few years (5).