#1
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Confidence intervals for sngs??
I'm sure someone out there has a formula that I can plug some numbers into.
I'm particuarly interested in this for HU sngs, which would naturally be measured in winrate %. Eg say I win 60% over 200 hu sngs with a std dev of .95 buyins, 95% chance I'm between XX% winner and YY% winner... |
#2
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Re: Confidence intervals for sngs??
[ QUOTE ]
say I win 60% over 200 hu sngs with a std dev of .95 buyins, 95% chance I'm between XX% winner and YY% winner... [/ QUOTE ] A win rate of 60% corresponds to a SD of sqrt(.6 * .4)=49%. After n tournaments, the SD of your observed win rate will be 49%/sqrt(n). One rough 95% confidence interval is 60%+-2 standard deviations. |
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