#1
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Question about probabilities
I was sitting under the gun with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] with 5 players having invested 20$ each in a $100 pot. The flop comes 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB bets $30, BB Raises $200 and is the type of player who would have atleast AQ do bet that much. A.) What do I do? B.) What if I know BB has Q4? C.) What are the pertinent odds to be considered? D.) What's the best book or online resource to get this learn more about this? Thanks, Kang |
#2
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Re: Question about probabilities
Your hand is fairly strong on this board. You have outs to the nut flush and also to 2-pair or trips. You didn't mention stack sizes but you should probably go all-in. You will usually be a slight favorite even when called.
Poker odds: http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/odds_chart.php http://www.pokerupdate.com/pokerodds.htm |
#3
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Re: Question about probabilities
just my two cents,
A) in some cases I might raise for value. Folding seems like a very weak line and calling gives you nothing new to work off of on the turn. To me you have a hand good enough to take a stand with. Anyone agree with my thinking here? BTW, how large were the stacks involved? B) if you KNEW he had Q4, youd be about a 45% to win this hand. With that in mind, you might as well call since you are basically 50/50 to win and the dead money covers any % you are behind. Besides, if you know he has Q4 you can see the turn and then decide from there. C) I dont know exactly what you mean, but as for D) go to www.twodimes.net from here you can enter hand combos to find out winning %s. |
#4
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Re: Question about probabilities
Stack sizes would be really helpful for this one. Lets say that half of the time he's got top two pair, half the time he has a set of 3s or 4s. A set would mean that you have 9 outs (ignoring the possibility of a boat), and top two would mean that you have 12 outs. With two cards to come those leave your odds of winning at almost exactly 35% and 45%, respectively. (You can find these numbers in almost any poker book.) This averages to a 40% chance of winning if you play the hand to the end. (Obviously if youre sure he has Q4, then your chances of winning are 45%.)
With exact stack sizes, we could probably break it down even further, taking into account how often a raise will make your opponent fold and whether that offsets the fact that you're an underdog in the hand. With no other information, I would lean towards a small raise here in the hopes of a free card on the turn. |
#5
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Re: Question about probabilities
Thanks for the great responses !
As to stack sizes, I started the hand with almost exactly $900. SB had about $200, BB had probably $500 before his $200 bet. Not to string it out, this post was instigated by the fact that I was chastised for not folding, and I was curious to know the truth. As it turned out, I just called the bet. SB said, "He must have AQ of dimaonds", I said I did, and ask the dealer if I could show it. I know I'm loosing my odds with this act, but this table is so messed up I didn't want anybody catching anything crazy on me. I know its wrong to play semi-broke but the $900 meant alot to me on this particular night. Anyway, I turned up my hand and all the remaining players (after way too long deliberating) folded so it was just me and the $200 guy. The turn was an Ace, yea. The river a 4, giving him a boat. I agree with whats been said so far that I actually probably should have gone all in, but I just wanted to make sure I was right about at least playing with the odds. I was thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of 45%, so I feel a little better about that. Again, thanks alot for the knowledge Kang |
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