Big pots early in tourneys

[Snarf]

Often early in tourneys I'll play good hands more passively than I would later in tourneys - using the classic logic, the risk of losing chips isn't worth the reward of gaining. My basic question is this: How strong of a hand do you need - POST FLOP - in relation to your opponents hand to get all your chips in the center early in a tourney? What % of a favorite do you need to be win the hand? OR how many outs (pending runner runner) would you need to avoid to make it worthwhile?

Lets say an unknown opponent is pushing back at you hard when have a premium holding. If you figure to have the best hand better than 90% of the time. Do you ever fold to avoid the risks associated with busting/being crippled early if you get unlucky? Do the risks involved outweigh the benefits of doubling/tripling up early? How strong do you need to be to call an all-in early? If hes drawing to 6 or fewer outs? 5? 4? etc... What if hes pushing a flush or OESD at you?

Does you answer change if its a MTT, STT or a 1 table?
Does your answer change if you figure to outclass your opponents?
Do pot odds factor into these spots when you flop to a monster?
Does anyone fold in those spots or is that just bad poker?

How strong - in terms of winning % or outs to avoid do you need to be?

I've seen math done on 2+2 w/hourly ROI calculations to decide these things. I guess I'm looking more for a practical philosophy discussion than that.

Thoughts?

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Often early in tourneys I'll play good hands more passively than I would later in tourneys - using the classic logic, the risk of losing chips isn't worth the reward of gaining.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not logic. That is a weakness commonly exploited by good players. Chip value is very close to linear most of the time.

[ QUOTE ]

If you figure to have the best hand better than 90% of the time. Do you ever fold to avoid the risks associated with busting/being crippled early if you get unlucky?

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course you shouldn't fold if you think you are a significant favorite on average.

"And if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player." -- Greg Raymer

That includes calling all-in when you know you are an underdog against your opponent's range, but you are easily getting the odds to call.

[ QUOTE ]

Do the risks involved outweigh the benefits of doubling/tripling up early?


[/ QUOTE ]
Everyone can see there is some risk if you call all-in. Good players see that failing to get your chips in as a favorite is also risky. You run the risk of blinding down with out finding a good opportunity again. You run the risk that you will get a great opportunity later, but won't have enough chips to take full advantage of it. Whether you call all-in or not, your tournament is always on the line.

[ QUOTE ]

Does your answer change if you figure to outclass your opponents?


[/ QUOTE ]
One of the ways I outclass my opponents is by being willing to get my chips in as a favorite. In order to live, you need to be willing to die. <font color="white">Sorry, I don't know the source of that quote.</font>

Great players should be willing to give up small edges that come with a lot of variance. However, many poor players seem to think they will become good by giving up large advantages.

The payout system of tournaments, particularly SNGs, argues for avoiding marginal +EChip gambles, particularly on the bubble. Nevertheless, I find it profitable to try to take chips from bad players early rather than trying to take the chips away from good players later. Suppose I posted a blind of 30 chips on the first hand, and the maniacal small blind pushes for 1000. How much of a favorite do I need to be to call? According to the Independent Chip Model, I need to be a 52.8% favorite against his range to call.

[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone fold in those spots or is that just bad poker?


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, many people fold when they clearly are getting the right odds to call, or can even expect to be a favorite. They are part of what makes poker so profitable for good players.

[Xhad]

Paul Phillips: "I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker."

Greg Raymer: "...if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player."

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/show...part=1&amp;vc=1