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Overpair raised on not too scary flop
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter
Hero ($18.50) UTG ($20.40) MP ($18.75) Button ($21.85) SB ($20.65) Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.25. UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Button calls $0.25, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises to $1.25</font>, UTG calls $1, Button calls $1. Flop: ($4.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.50</font>, 1 fold, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $7.50</font>. Hero: ??? This is a hypothetical hand, so I'm assuming a good read on the playing styles of my opponents. Button is TAG, UTG is LP. I think MHIG most of the time, because only AA/KK/JJ/88/55/J8/85 are beating me here, and I'm ruling out AA/KK/JJ/J8/85. Since there are only 6 hands beating me that are reasonable holdings here, is it likely enough that button is bluffing, semi-bluffing, or raising me with AJ that I should push here? I don't think I can just call, because I'll have $9.75 left on the turn, looking at a $18.85 pot. But if I push, button has about 3:1 on a semi-bluff draw, and is now induced to call. So I can push now and give the button 3:1 to see the next two cards, or I can call and push any turn other than a 7 or diamond and give the button 3:1 to see one more card, but if I plan to do this and a scare does hit, do I check/fold the turn? What if button had made this same raise, but UTG had called my leading bet? Am I folding in this case, assuming it's now very unlikely that button is bluffing or semi-bluffing against two opponents and that he's holding 88/55 enough of the time to make my fold a good move? Thanks! |
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