#1
|
|||
|
|||
Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)
I'm going to work out my own analysis and post this, to ensure that I made the correct decision here:
--- Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls. Flop: (23 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB calls. Turn: (14 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, Hero??? Pot: 17bb --- The PF cold-caller is 18/11 after 228 hands. On the turn, I'm only afraid of 77 and 66 from him: not much, basically. I'm thinking he's got something closer to jj-88. The table's running pretty hot right now, so that could help his decision towards cold-calling a hand, although with a lag on the table perhaps going to three-bet, it's probably inadvisable for him to do that. If he has the hand range that I put him on, I would like to congradulate him for a great turn raise! The preflop capper is unknown. I'm going to be a douche here and say that his cap vs people three-betting him out-of-position range, in a multiway pot, is: AK, AQs, AA-TT... AK: 12 AQs: 3 AA: 3 KK: 3 QQ: 6 JJ: 6 TT: 6 My Expected Outs here: 2(12) + 6(3) + 0(3) + 3(3) + 3*6(6) + 0 (2) (just in case that cold-caller really does have quads, which would be really weird): 159 / 38 = ~4.1 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Arg, not enough odds to call. Do you guys agree / disagree with this? (In the actual hand I did call, and I was shown JJ and 99, so it was a good call if I could actually see their cards, but this leads me to believe that I should have folded. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ) Edit: It would have been SO sweet to have AKs clubs here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)
Fold. There is still another betting round to lose money on. If we give your overcards a total of 4 outs, you are getting nowhere near the odds. It isn't even a close decision, especially since a call does not close the action.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)
I'm having a real hard time following your numbers there. Are these taking the other two folks still active into account? Ah, no matter ... you're drawing dead quite a few times and chopping a bunch of others.
I fold this PDQ and sleep like a baby. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)
[ QUOTE ]
I'm having a real hard time following your numbers there. Are these taking the other two folks still active into account? Ah, no matter ... you're drawing dead quite a few times and chopping a bunch of others. I fold this PDQ and sleep like a baby. [/ QUOTE ] The only guy left to act is the BB who's not taken into consideration for my outs... Sorry about the clutter with regards to the numbers. What does PDQ mean? |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)
[ QUOTE ]
Fold. There is still another betting round to lose money on. If we give your overcards a total of 4 outs, you are getting nowhere near the odds. It isn't even a close decision, especially since a call does not close the action. [/ QUOTE ] I'm willing to pay quads an additional 2bb on this river without getting upset. There's a chance that I'll hit my K and lose, or hit my A and lose, to a boat... that would suck. Getting 8.5:1 I'm pretty close to required odds, but I only think I'll get paid by one guy if an ace hits and I'm good: so, I can't call. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)
MP2's Turn raise is fantastic and BB is freakin me out just enough to drop it.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)
[ QUOTE ]
What does PDQ mean? [/ QUOTE ] Pretty damn quick. Durn kids. |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|