Hey, I found a leak! Now what?

Saddlepoint · #1 08-08-2005, 08:17 AM

I sincerely feel as though my nlhe play has improved greatly in this past month (note that my conclusion is not necessarily based in my results over that period). I've kind of settled into a groove, and feel like I'm probably a winning player at my level. Yes, I've moved up from a 3 to a 4 on the scale to 1000 of poker skill, and very excited. Lesser men might be satisfied; I'm shooting for 5.

I was looking through my PokerTracker statistics yesterday, where I have ~15,000 hands at my current level. Though wary of drawing conclusions from the overall statistics, I was rereading over some specific hands that resulted in big pots, trying to see if I could find any patterns.

I think I've found a leak in my game - a situation where my current approach is losing me money. A lot of money, I think. Hard to say for sure. The situation concerns "monster draws", by which I mean draws that are a favorite on the flop against top-pair or an overpair.

I strive to be an aggressive player, and I semibluff a lot. In both raised and unraised pots, I will often make big stabs at the pot on the flop with a flush draw or open-ended straight draw. Against the right opponent, I will raise or check/raise with these same hands. I plan to fold if I encounter a lot of resistance (unless I'm getting pot odds), and, since I'm usually playing hands like these in position, I get checked to a lot on the turn when I miss and will generally take the free card.

So, fine (right?). Here's the thing. If instead of just a flush draw, I flop a straight flush draw, or a flush draw with a pair, I know that I am a small pre-turn favorite against a lot of hands that think they're in great shape. And I fire with them a lot. And I keep firing the turn if I miss, or worse, I call. Sometimes I'll flop one draw, "improve" to a multiway draw on the turn and get carried away. Here are some examples of monster draws I've misplayed.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) converter

Hero ($100.90)
Button ($105.55)
SB ($84.35)
BB ($110.70)
UTG ($84.40)
UTG+1 ($99.75)
MP1 ($76.30)
MP2 ($97.50)
MP3 ($20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP3 (poster) checks, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($6.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets $5, Hero calls $5, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($16.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $15, MP3 calls $14 (All-In).

River: ($45.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $45.50

Results in white below: 
MP3 has Qh Th (two pair, queens and tens).
Hero has Jc Ac (one pair, twos).
Outcome: MP3 wins $44.50. Hero wins $1. 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) converter

BB ($91.40)
UTG ($60.70)
UTG+1 ($104)
MP1 ($32.50)
Hero ($164.10)
CO ($27.30)
Button ($42.75)
SB ($93.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($8.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $8, Button calls $8.

Turn: ($24.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $13, Hero raises to $152.6, Button calls $18.25 (All-In).

River: ($208.35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $208.35

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ac Tc (one pair, sevens).
Button has Qd Ah (two pair, queens and sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins $121.35. Button wins $87. 

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($115.8)
MP1 ($136.55)
MP2 ($56.95)
CO ($82.6)
Button ($88.6)
SB ($107.4)
BB ($122.3)
Hero ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
Hero calls $1, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($4.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets $2, BB folds, Hero raises to $8, MP1 calls $8, Button calls $6.

Turn: ($28.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $91 (All-In), MP1 calls $91, Button folds.

River: ($210.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $210.50

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ts 9s (one pair, nines).
MP1 has Kh Jc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins $210.50. 

Note for that last one that I'm not playing suited connectors like that from UTG anymore. Anyway, is the solution a pre-flop thing? To try and be in position more often with speculative hands? Should I try to get it all-in on the flop when out of position with these types of draws? Or is this all just a question of donkish turn play?

I'm sure I have hundreds of leaks just like this one, but this one jumped out at me. Any criticism, abuse, comments, questions, thoughts absolutely welcome.

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