What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)

[brick]

One Attempt
Hole-in-One - Par 3 - 140 yards
I shoot in the low 80's on average and play twice a week in the summer.

If it matters, I'm only betting $1 per attempt.

[ihardlyknowher]

100:1

[Claunchy]

[ QUOTE ]
100:1

[/ QUOTE ]
I was thinking that at first, but there's really no way that's close to +EV.

To the OP:
How many holes-in-one have you had in your life? Approximately how many par 3s have you played in your life?

[brick]

I thought about posting that but didn't want to skew the results. There's no way that the sample size is significant.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
100:1

[/ QUOTE ]
I was thinking that at first, but there's really no way that's close to +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

While maybe far off from real +EV in reality, with such a small amount staked (he said $1 bet), I don't really see why this is so -EV. I assume anyone here can wipe their ass with a dollar bill and not think twice about wasting a buck.

I don't care if Golf Digest says it's 5000:1, there's no way in hell I'd give anyone that kind of odds on a $1 bet.

[Nick-Zack]

I would never want to fade this bet at anywhere close to true odds. The $1 that can win means nothing while the $10K will sting a little. I guess I would take the bet though with much lower odds - 1000 to 1 maybe.

[brick]

[ QUOTE ]
I would never want to fade this bet at anywhere close to true odds. The $1 that can win means nothing while the $10K will sting a little. I guess I would take the bet though with much lower odds - 1000 to 1 maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Several people have said this and I agree.

I don't think there are many people on this forum who would give me 1,000 to 1.

[eric5148]

[ QUOTE ]
100:1

[/ QUOTE ]

youhardlyknowgolf

[2+2 wannabe]

anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

[brick]

[ QUOTE ]
anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

If I hit 10,000 shots I would make way more than 1.