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#1
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PP $50 + $5, No reads unfortunately. Villian had not done anything noticeably stupid to this point.
I have a feeling you guys are going to flame me again. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter BB (t770) UTG (t2410) MP1 (t1200) MP2 (t1280) CO (t1450) Button (t1455) Hero (t1435) Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1455 (All-In)</font> |
#2
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no
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#3
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I would want to call just to see what kind of hand he has. But I wouldn't.
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#4
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No. AK or JJ scared to play OR AA or KK hoping for someone who thinks they are crazy. Or maybe he's crazy and shows you 27.
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#5
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I hate calling off my stack with AK, I fold here.
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#6
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On occasion, even decent players who think they never get action with premium hands will push a monster on the theory that that they might as well try to bust somebody rather than try to win a few BB's. The fact that you are considering calling shows that this tactic has some merit.
I fold here. If he's pushing AQo or some crap, then he's welcome to my blind. GG |
#7
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Say the button does this with any two cards. He's betting 1450 to win 50. Say you only call with AA-JJ. When he's called he wins the 2900 pot 11% of the time; when he isn't he wins 50. You'll get AA-JJ (1/17)*(4/13) or about 2% of the time. So the EV of this play for him is .98(50) - 1450 (.02)(.89 - .11) or approximately +23 chips.
Obviously, the fact that folding AK is exploitable by a strategy against which you should call with AK does not, in itself, prove anything. But my instinct is that, absent reads, folding to a 29BB all-in raise is slightly too tight. Of course you might have a general read that says you should fold, or tournament considerations might swing this to a fold, or, most likely, he might be (soundly) pushing with far fewer hands. I think the decision is close, and didn't want all the replies to this thread to be dismissive noes. I should really get an actual knowledge of game theory someday... --Nate |
#8
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This is the easiest fold of folds. You'd need a 55% over his range of hands to even think about calling here, and given the weirdness of his play, it's certainly not screaming Ax or Kx.
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#9
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Easy fold.
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#10
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Nope.
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