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Old 12-22-2005, 08:25 PM
Catt Catt is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 998
Default Re: AQs, lots of outs on turn but trapped between two raisers

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that one of the two has a 9 in hand a huge % of the time when the turn goes bet-raise after the flop action on that board, so I'm not giving your overcard outs much play here (and if neither has a 9, someone has 2-pair or a set). That means we have likely 4 Ks (slim chance that a K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is no good) and 4 9 outs (same slim chance). However, if we assume that one 9 is already out, then we have ~7 outs. There is a small chance that the 9 outs are to a split. All in all, you could take the conservative view that you have somewhere between 6 and 7 outs, and it comes to you 10.75 : 2 which is not enough. The prospect of it getting 3-bet and capped behind makes the odds even worse.

Tough to make this laydown as UTG is unknown and could be getting really goofy and we don't know how much BB really likes his hand until he three-bets the turn (after our decision point obviously). However, looking at it in the calm light of the forum, I think you have a strong case to lay down to the turn the first time it comes to you.
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