[Spicymoose]

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You say you don't want to fold out a worse hand on the turn with a raise, but then you turn around and say you'd raise the river if you hit, but why wouldn't he just fold the river to you raise?

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He might, but we still get that extra bluff BB from him. If we raise for the free showdown, he get none. Furthermore, he may have improved to a second best hand that he thinks is good, and will call our river bet (yet another BB for us).

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And what makes you think he's going to fire yet another barrel at the river with a worse hand, especially when the board gets scary?

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I don't think he necessarily will. I think it is a possibility. If he 100% does not, then both our lines have the same value. If he sometimes bluffs the river, we get more BB from him by letting him bluff.

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Or even call you're bet if he doesn't fire?

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Again, if he does this even 1% of the time, there is some value. I think the number is higher than that. But the point is, we don't need this value, it is just a bonus.

I still havn't been able to see where we are gaining our extra value on the turn raise, yet have seen a few places where we might lose it.