[AviD]

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AviD,

Let's say 3 of your oponnents have 95% chance of folding, 3 have a 75% chance of folding and 2 have a 50% chance of folding.

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I think those estimates are overly optimistic.


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This isn't about optimism, this move wasn't based on hope, wishing, praying, or desperation. I wasn't making the move hoping N players would fold 95% of the time, I was making the move being almost certain I would win the pot. If I wasn't near certain I could win the pot I would have folded. I've folded in this spot so many times before.

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All you need is one person with a low chance of folding to make this a huge longshot.


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This is what made it a strong move because I thought there was no person with a low chance of folding in THIS hand.

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You sound like the guy who cold-calls a 3-bet with pocket 2s against your aces, calls all the way on a AKQ flop, catches running twos and thinks he played the hand well. You hit a huge longshot, but that doesn't make it correct.


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This is nothing like the hand I played. I was not playing the cards, I was not oblivious to being beat here and calling down anyway. I was not the one CALLING with no hand or a beat hand, I was RAISING to get those whom had no hands but better hands than mine out. And a huge key to that is my position (SB) and this exact board. If the board were any different, in any number of ways, I would have almost certainly folded without a second thought. But this board and my position lended itself specifically to making this move based on all the conditions I've described in my original posts.

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I'm all for trying to steal a huge pot, but at least have some outs and a smaller nubmer of players.


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Again, I wasn't concerned with outs or my hand, I wasn't playing my hand at all on the turn. The daunting factor is indeed the number of players, but as I mentioned in my other post how often are you going to have a huge pot SHed that you can take a shot at like this and where all the players are completely disinterested in the pot or their hands? The only thing that made this pot big is because just about every player at the table was making "sure why not" calls looking to hit an out on the next street. SHed (less players) in a pot and it only gets that big when at least one or several players have a made hand or a very, very strong draw. I was confident no one had a great made hand and my only concern was the turned draw.

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Hope to see you in AC this weekend.

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If it rains, I'll be at the Taj early Saturday morning (late Friday night) and plan on playing the 11AM tourney with Mike. We *might* swing over the Borgata, we'll see! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
If I don't see you, good luck...hope you land a hot deck! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]