View Single Post
  #8  
Old 07-11-2005, 05:04 AM
Nightwish Nightwish is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 182
Default RESULTS

Here are my thoughts on this hand. Preflop is fine. The flop is fine as a variation.

Now let's talk about the turn. Hero has to follow up his flop check-raise with a turn bet, but he has also turned an open-ended straight draw. UTG calls, which is not good for hero, but now the CO raises. So what does the CO have? Since hero knows that CO is a TAG, it's probably not AT (unless it's AcTx) because the CO would have 3-bet that on the flop. Could CO have turned a flush? Maybe, but he may have 3-bet that on the flop too. CO may also AcAx/KcKx or a flopped set. Regardless, unless the CO is overplaying a lone Ac in a protected pot, hero is almost certainly behind and needs help on the river. In fact, hero is unlikely to have more than 5 outs because the 9c is likely compromised. And in the worst-case and fairly realistic scenario, hero is drawing dead. So hero's 3-bet is just bad. It's another example of the kind of -EV high-variance chip spewage that is now all too commonly advocated here.

As I told you, I'm not the hero in this hand. Actually, I was the CO, and I had TT. I knew that the BB's (hero's) stats were 17.88/9.98/1.10. So when he called preflop and then check-raised the flop, I knew what he likely had. I was putting him on AT/A8/T8/55/88. I didn't think he would check-raise with a flush draw because he wouldn't want to drive out UTG. UTG might be on a flush draw because he called two cold, but he may also have lots of other hands here. Regardless, I decided to wait till the turn to raise because I was convinced that BB would bet the turn.

That turn club was not a good card for me in the sense of UTG perhaps having turned a flush, but when he just called the turn, I knew I still had him beat so I raised. But when BB 3-bet, I had to reconsider. After all, he must know that I wouldn't be raising here with crap, right? I raise with a flush on the board, and he's telling me he's the one who has it?? Alright, I guess I have to call down.

The rest of the action went as follows. UTG folded to the 3-bet, and I called. The river was a 7. BB bet again, and I called.
Reply With Quote