Re: Bubble play with K5s
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I think you can fold this.
Any hand SB will miniraise with is going to call your push and be a favorite over k5. You're not really in shape to make a run for the tournament, so I would choose a better spot to make a stand. I think its a fold if you're not on the bubble. If you care about the payout increase its definitely a fold.
the other players will easily be all in several times in the next few hands.
I usually ignore the bubble and push my premium hands, this isnt one of them.
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I am far from ready to give up on a big finish here. It is situations like this where survivalists really get killed in terms of long term EV. They may jump .20 buy-ins by folding up a level. But if he wins this hand (which he probably has 40% equity in) he will have 11600 chips, he steals once more within 2-3 hands, he is almost back to 10xBB.
I know that I can turn a 7xBB stack (when there are antes and most players are short) into a final table enough where it is worth a 40/60 shot vs. a .20 buy-in increase by folding up the pay-scale.
The only time I consider folding here is certain party MTTs where the low end pays >2x the buy in, with a slow increase until top 7. Then it is probably worth folding your way in.
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