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Old 11-30-2005, 02:51 AM
SparkyDog SparkyDog is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 4
Default Re: couple hands from tonight

There's a lot of ways to play hand one, and I don't think that many are all that different EV wise from each other. I usually don't cap preflop but it's fine to do.

I'm not sure whether or not your original plan to check the turn and check/fold the river was too weak. I don't think it was. Regardless, I think it'd be better to either stick to the plan or just bet the turn and check behind on the river. When SB leads into a KQxxx flop after the turn gets checked through, I think he's got you beat more than 90% of the time.

Hand 2 I call down. Remember we're getting 10-1 or so on the turn, so we can see the river even if we know Villan has QQ. However, I don't think he'll cap with a worse hand if you 3bet, and he'll likely cap with QQ.

Let's roughly assume if we're ahead Villian has two outs, and if we're behind we have four outs. Also, if we improve we have implied odds for two bets on the river, and we'll call down if capped without improvement. Also assume that Villian has implied odds of about 2 bets when he improves. I'm rounding off the percentages to 10% and 5% of hero and villian improving while behind, respectively. I'm lazy and this is just a guesstimate anyways. X = chances of being ahead needed to profitably 3bet.

(.95)(2)(x) + (.10)(4)(1-x) + (.05)(-3)(x) + (.9)(-3)(1-x)

It works out to about 85%. Using combinations it's 43% that we're ahead, assuming Villian has AQ, KQ, or JT. I ignored AK since it's a chop.

Basically what this all boils down to is it's a lose two win one type of situation. I'd just call the raise and try for a C/R if I improved, check call if I didn't.
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