All I have to say about this is if you want to get an idea about how widespread ignorance and misunderstanding of basic probability theory is, just check out the
Monty Hall Dilemma. I'm constantly shocked at how few people get this one right. In fact, in one study, a majority of
math professors answered incorrectly.
And yet, it's one of the simplest applications of Bayes' Theorem out there.
As an attorney, I can tell you that most judges' understanding is positively laughable, and they usually have a much better grasp than legislators who actually draft these policies.
Oh, and the so-called "expert witnesses" judges bring in to help them grasp statistical arguments are usually full of crap as well. It's a sad state, really.