Re: Is this really correct?
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Okay, since nobody likes my river fold, I’ll try to explain…
First, my opponent. I’ve played him quite a bit. Although he is way too passive in some spots and way too loose in others (like here), I haven’t ever seen him do anything really stupid (like calling with gutshot or under pair on 4th in this hand). I’d say he’s a solid winner at this limit.
He MAY call here with queens. It’s a stretch, but for the sake of discussion, lets say he calls. He almost certainly calls with kings and of course with aces. So, unless he suddenly and mysteriously went crazy, he has either QQ, KK or Ax in the hole.
Next, some math. I have seen 21 cards which leaves 31, two of which are aces. So there are 29*2 ways he can have an ace in the hole, or 58 ways. (Did I get this right?). So it’s 58:2 or 29:1 against me winning. Getting only 12:1, I can’t call this, no?
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The more I think about this the more I think you're right.
Considering you don't see any 8's or 3's the goofy guy could have filled. And maybe he's got trips, he did call the double bet.
You have convinced me. Assuming your opponent was a super donk
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