[Garland]

I posted this specifically with the turn in mind.

The reasons I bet so little on the turn are multi-faceted:

(a) I play a lot of poker online. When the board pairs, and I fill up, most opponents with draws tend to shrivel up and fold to a pot-sized or near pot-sized bet. They cannot be confident and raise or bet confidently even if they do hit. I don’t know exactly how this translates to live poker, but I absolutely could not risk him folding. I bet an amount that guarantees that I get called. There’s a certain pleasure in making my opponents pay for drawing dead.

(b) I’m setting him up for failure on the river regardless of what he holds. I’m feigning (thanks Diablo) weakness on the turn implying I don’t have the K to set him up on the river. My plan was to check any river. If he hits the draw, he bets and I check-raise all-in expecting a call (players are that bad here). If he misses, I hope he bluffs, and I pick him off. If he has the case K, he doubles me up.

(c) While my opponent is aggressive, I consider him pretty standard inflicted with what one calls “owncarditis” meaning he only plays his own cards and not mine. Against a strong opponent, I would definitely make a full bet, but decided he was weak and did what I did.

(d) If I’m wrong and he has maybe a bottom pair of a 7, he’ll be more inclined to call.

Anyways, here’s how the river action went:

I check, BBD bets $200, I go all-in. He hems and haws for a long time. With a draw, I expected him to just muck immediately. But he genuinely just postures for 20-30 seconds. So either he has a busted draw and is just acting or it’s possible he has a 7. He finally folds.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Garland