[-Skeme-]

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anytime you c/r the river and he folds you were probably ahead anyways so I don't see why you would do that.

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I wouldn't. Ever.


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i would probably just fold...heroic calls in $200 NL rarely work out, let them do that when you have a good hand.

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I also do this. A lot. In fact, frequently when people call down on very drawheavy boards and the river misses. I've picked off many a bluff like that.


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The more I think about it, i raise this flop something like 100% of the time. Too aggro?

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Too aggro and reckless for me, unless of course you only mean in this exact situation, with the minbet and all. Then yes, a raise is probably decent, because I figure my FE is high. If it was a full PSB I'd just call, but I'd much rather lead the flop myself instead of check-raising with my draw, OOP.

This board is weird, it could've helped Villain, I don't know, no read. I don't know why I checked, I lead this almost 90% of the time I'd say. With his tiny bet, sure a check-raise could be good, not entire sure why I only called, not that I think a call is bad.

Anyways, onto my analysis. I'd let the replies go for longer, but I've gotta sleep soon and don't wanna wake up to 30 replies saying, "A check-raise bluff is stupid!"

Alright, first off, I was never intending on a check-raise bluff. The question was whether or not I should even entertain the thought of picking off a bluff by Villain. I'm surprised more people didn't immediately assume that's what I meant (not that it's a solid idea either.)

Preflop: bland, basic and simple. Flop: check? Sure, call of minbet, sure. Turn is where it gets interesting. I lead for $8 as opposed to a check-raise on the flop for a few reasons. 1) It's dang tricky, aint it? 2) I'd like to define my hand a little, take command, and bet myself as opposed to check-calling a bet. Taking command as in I might win the pot right there. This hope/thought comes directly from the flop action. If he had bet full pot I'd check again in fear of being raised if I'd lead flop.

He calls. The board is insanely draw heavy. He only calls. Another clue, heheh. River totally blanks and I check. He bets big, and then the gears start turning, heh.

1) What hand wants a call here with his $20 bet after limping preflop, minbetting ultra draw heavy flop, and NOT raising my turn lead?

2) What reasonable hand can Villain have that bets here after previous action that beats me? Let's go through his range:

Overpair? No. The limp preflop knocks out that possibility IMO. 2 pair? Nah, the high majority of the time I will expect the Villain to raise on such a draw heavy board. JT is the most reasonable and I'd expect more action from it. A set? No, same reasoning as above, I expect raising on the turn and preflop raises for 2/3s of the set possibilities.

4X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? That's definitely a possibility, although probably slightly unlikely as I have the other 2 spades and the higher type [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s are already on the board.

Anyways, I did not think there were any hands (except maybe busted draw that somehow included a 4, not that likely, though) that bet river this hard. It seemed like a bet designed to get a crappy hand to fold. Any other pair will obviously check behind after my action on flop. AJo is a possibility, but I don't think it bets here that big that often, if ever.

Obviously I called. I had him on a 9 or another busted draw. He showed KQo and MHIG. I just think his range of hands that bet here are more likely bluffs than legitimate hands.

There is also the possibility he is bluffing with the best hand, but I doubt it. This was not a brag post btw.