[sweetjazz]

Given how much our country has shifted away from classical liberalism / libertarianism after the events of 9/11, it seems highly unlikely that Iraq -- given the chaos they face and lack of order there -- will turn to liberal or moderate answers.

The insurgents may not win support among the Iraqi citizens, but the people to whom Iraqis turn will likely be people the insurgents like more than we moderate Americans do.

So I think your analysis is, sadly, likely to be spot on.

Basically, Iraq seems to be playing out very similar to other attempts to liberalize parts of the world (e.g. Central America). Nominal democracy takes hold for a while, but the roots of secular liberalism never become rooted in the society.

Given that much of the Republican success in the U.S. has been based on the erosion of support for secular liberalism, it is somewhat ironic that they are so optomistic about its success in Iraq.