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Old 12-19-2005, 03:28 AM
SammyKid11 SammyKid11 is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 401
Default Re: Is this a push? Can someone run the numbers.

Tough situation. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say this is a fold. The biggest reasonable +EV edge I can come up with here is in the 0.5% range...and that's if you're a little lucky on calling ranges. At the 11's, I think there's a very decent chance BB would look you up with any ace...I've no doubt SB would be tighter, hoping that BB looks you up and busts you. But that assumes SB is a thinking player at all.

In this case, I think you need to take what we would normally think of as a reasonable calling range based on stack sizes...and then widen them CONSIDERABLY for BB -- and somewhat for SB.

Taking into account the possibility that one or both of them are total donkeys, I put their calling ranges as follows:

BB: 22+, A2s+, A5o+, K9s+, KJ+, QTs+, QJ+, JTs
SB: 22+, A5s+, A9+, KTs+, KQ+, QJs

These ranges make folding pretty clear.

Note: I'm not saying that I think these are the "standard" ranges for two players with these stacks...just ranges that I've widened to reflect the possibilities of their stupidity. If they're big idiots, I wouldn't at ALL be surprised to get shown J7s here. If they're small idiots, the range I've defined might work. And if they're not idiots, a considerably tighter range should be employed for SB while BB's range is, I think, accurately defined by bluefeet. The range I've plugged in should be taken as an average of their potential intelligence levels. So...if you have reads that indicate something different than "unknown 11 donk" -- that information could be highly valuable in terms of whether or not this is a push.

Edit: I shouldn't disparage bad player's intelligence as I did. Playing badly does not necessarily indicate stupidity (though sometimes that is the case). I should have said their intelligence/experience level, etc. If I'd never read these boards or a myriad of poker books, I might well play VERY poorly, but that alone would not indicate that I was of low intelligence (though, perhaps playing without studying IS a sign of either low intelligence or perhaps low discipline levels). Anyway, wanted to fix that.
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