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Old 11-24-2005, 09:30 PM
swiftrhett swiftrhett is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 61
Default Re: Should you play low PP\'s early in $10/$20\'s?

What is so great about this situation? You hit your set 11.8% of the time. In this case, +270 chips adds 0.0298 $EV according to ICM (of the prize pool). When you don't hit the set, losing 30 chips costs you 0.0044 $EV.

So, 0.0966*(100-11.8)/100+0.1298*11.8/100 = 0.100518 $EV for making the move, as opposed to 0.1 that you have for folding.

So, assuming it works out just the way you planned, you're gaining 0.5% equity by making the move.

At the beginning of a $10 sng, this is like saying your equity is worth $10 if you fold, and $10.05 if you want to play this game with your pocket pairs.

A few things to keep in mind though: I'm assuming it works out exactly as you planned on average. I believe that this is generous, and it does not ALWAYS work out as great as you described. If it works out that great 90% of the time, this is -$EV. Also, you are gaining $EV in these tournies by just folding early on. When the game becomes 9 players, and you have 800 chips, you have gained $EV from the 10 player start.

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The answer is clearly yes, its +EV to play pocker pairs early on.
Why? because u can stack your oponents..or even if u dont stack them u win lots of chips.
For instance:
level 2: u limp , 4 ppl see the flop.
U see the flop, u hit ure set, u bet 90 u get 2 callers. U fire again at the turn and they fold, guess what u won 270 chips. Trust me even if u dont stack an oponent with your set you will still win some chips.

Pesky sets is another topic altogether( like with a flush on the board)..but my chips are usually in anyway on a pesky flop( fh odds If im accidentally behind).

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