[Gregg777]

Villian,

I understand there are other factors, type of opponent, opponent's betting patterns, table image, folding equity, etc. I am just inquiring specifically about the equity aspect.

Thanks for your answer, it helps. If only considering equity, and you are heads up, then it must be at least 50%, regardless of the amount already in the pot. Correct?

So to put it a different way. If you were only going to consider equity, if you bet with less than a 50% hand equity, it would be -EV because your expected win rate is less than 50%. Therefore you are contributing 50% to win less than 50%.

Got it. But I still don't understand why you shouldn't factor in the pot amount at all.

For example, back to the $10 pot. If I bet $5 with only a 40% equity, that means I will win the pot only 40% of the time.

However, assuming I have a 40% equity, if I bet $5 into a $10 pot ten times and won only four, my results would be that I invested $50 ($5 x 10), and won $80 ($20 x 4).

So I would be plus $30. Correct?

Where am I going wrong with my math???