[Rick Nebiolo]

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One other thing... I would rather play against an opponent who will only continue past the flop if they can beat an overpair... if my opponent could have a set, two pair, or top pair, then essentially they are going to be bluffing me a certain percentage of the time which is likely to be somewhat close to the optimal bluffing frequency. Sometimes they may double me up with top pair, but they will get it all back when I am forced to pay off their set the next time.

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Wow, great observation. I seem to have several problems when playing the overpair or playing against the overpair.

When playing the big overpair fairly deep I get pot-stuck too easily and pay off the opponent holding top two or a set far too often in large part because of the problems you outline above. So I definitely need to be limp-reraising more to avoid this dilemma as I'm not a superior reader.

When playing against the overpair I'm too often showing top two or a set since I won't call early raises with inferior holdings and tend not to raise on the come with all but the biggest draws against a strong EP raiser. Experienced opponents learn not to pay me off with overpairs or TPTK.

The end result is I get the worst of both worlds.


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AA wins against 4 random hands 56% of the time... once again this is leaving out a lot of variables (like the fact that on the flop you would still be ahead much more than 56% of the time) but it's still a good reminder that one pair doesn't hold up well in family pots. If you put your stack in postflop against multiple opponents with AA you are just gambling that this is one of the times that it holds up. Depending on how loose your opponents play it might be a good gamble, or it might be a bad gamble... but it's just a spot that I'd like to avoid.

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soah, you have made my ever increasing list of poster's I need to read more. It's not like the old days when I could count the top posters on my fingers and toes.

~ Rick