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Old 12-15-2005, 12:33 PM
woodguy woodguy is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Edmonton, Alberta
Posts: 20
Default Re: Two hands (Stars 45k)

Hand 1 - This is the type of flop that medium pairs love to put you on AK and try you on. If I'd seen the BB call and fold a lot I put in a 1/2 pot bet to rep the big pair, if he plays back and is strong I check and turn my gutshot. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If he leads the turn I may call depending on the turn card and the price, if an A or K turn I probably raise his lead, if he leads weak I may raise too.

Hand 2 - Boy that looks nice.

You have 27% pot equity if you are against a set and the nut flush draw/TP

You have 30% equity if vs. twopair and nut flush draw/TP

You have 47% equity if you are against 2 sets.

You are calling 24.8K into a what will be a 98.6K main pot (with your chips) making your equity 24% of that pot.

So you have the right equity to get involved in the main pot.

Assuming MP1 will get all in with you the side pot will be 60K with you putting up 50% of the chips.

If you are up against A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you have 31% equity
If you are up against a set you have 42% equity.

I don't think two pair puts in the 3rd raise on this flop so I won't include that.

So,

You have the right price for the main pot, but the wrong one for the significant side pot.

I'm at work so I don't have time to do all the math, but air math shows its probably a slightly -EV move.

Wicked freaking stack if you call and win both pots though.

Folding leaves you with 100BB's, that's a nice stack still.

Calling and losing both leaves you with 32BB's...not the end of the world.

Calling and winning both gives you 197BB's, very nice.

I think that this really depends on how you feel about playing with these various stacks vs. these opponents.

I probably fold if I'm know I'm better than most, and call if I'm outclassed.

Regards,
Woodguy
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