[TTChamp]

Aaron, thanks for the response. I have always liked your posts on here.

I'm not seeing a direct connection to poker in these examples. These are deterministic examples. There is no information defecit in a coin flip or a card draw. I think you are simply addressing the aspect of chance in poker.

In other words you are adressing the fact that you must not consider only what the outcome of any given trial is, but instead you must consider what is correct over every possible trial.

In the examples you gave, the other guy is making a bad bet. He may get lucky here or there, but in the long run he will lose money. In my example the villian will make money over many trials when he bets his AJ on the flop. He will also make money when he calls the c/r on the flop. So the coing flip guy has made a bad choice, while the AJ guy has made a profitable choice.

Also, I have a couple questions on your scenarios:

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you have a fair coin that everyone knows is fair. Someone agrees to bet $2 against your $1 that it will come up heads. If you take this bet you profit, regardless of what happens on the coin flip. You make $0.50 expected value when you make the bet, heads you lose $1.50, tails you make $1.50.


[/ QUOTE ]

Last sentence is a typo right.


[ QUOTE ]
Now suppose you draw a random card from the deck and keep it face down. Another person offers to bet you $1 even money that he can draw a higher card. The minute he says this, you are ahead $0.1267.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because we are winning when he draws the same card????