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I agree with the main message in this post and the couple of others like it. But I think Zee's mention of satellites is worth considering because the main thing everyone is getting from this data is a confirmation that MTT's with large fields are a very high-variance form of poker. Playing satellites reduces that variance by providing the flattest possible prize pool (I'm talking here about sats where 10% get a seat, not 2% like the big 10K buyin sats.) and allowing a skilled player to reduce his average cost of entry to the tournaments with cash prizes without much risk. There is an opportunity cost for the time spent if you play in lower buyin satellites than your bankroll would allow, and satelliting in to buyins over your roll may not be a great idea, but they do reduce variance if used properly.

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I have to address this, as I feel it's a flawed way of thinking. Satellites don't allow you to lower your "average cost of entry" into a tournament. That's a bit like saying you're "in for $11" in a Step 5 on Party. It really doesn't make sense. You *won money* at the satellite, not a ticket or whatever. You then choose to use that "ticket" to enter a larger buyin tourney. Even if you don't have the choice to unregister, by entering the satellite you're choosing to attempt to win a certain amount of $ to be used towards a larger buyin tourney.

Let's say you want to play the PCA and you need $11,000. You should play wherever your hourly rate is highest within your risk tolerance. If that's $200 STTs on Party, then so be it. If you feel like you have a great expectation in the weekly $650 sat, then play that. I think it's laughable that known cash game pros on Stars (people who never play STTs) would try to play these double shootouts when they could clearly have a higher expectation per hour at the 5/10nl or 10/20nl tables. Why not play those tables and just buyin with W$?

On the other hand, if you feel your best hourly expectation within your risk tolerance is at satellite tables, why not play them full time? If that payout structure is agreeable to you, why stop playing them after you win once?

Just had to get that off my chest... although it seems like a basic concept, a lot of people ignore it.