Re: The lottery is +EV
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maybe I'm just not getting the concept...
posted odds from Mega-Millions website:
odds of hitting 5 numbers +1 mega-ball (Jackpot) = 1 in 175,711,536
current jackpot: 200,000,000 ++
If you were to purchase 1 ticket, for $1, then it is +EV, no?
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Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout & taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight.
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