Obviously if I were trying to beat the game, I would never agree to bet that I would never be more than $200 ahead.


Let's say the bet was for $1,000,000 and you were the player. Now do you think you'd be trying to beat the game? Of course not. I'd make every single betting decision based entirely on what gives me the best chance of winning the million.


For $2000, for 20 hours, I'd do the same thing. That's why I picked those numbers.


Another thing is that if I thought this was nearly an even-money offer,(taking into account the 2:1 odds) I would never offer it. I'd need to be about 80% sure that I could do it, to make this a long range good-enough money winner with a cushion to boot, say, if it were run 1000 times over.


At 80% win rate, I'd win $2000x4 for each time I lost $1000. That's +$7000 every 100 hours, for $70 per hour, more than my modest needs.


So I guess what I'm saying is that the $5-5 blind PLH game plays in such a way, with such predictable steal opportunites in the range of $10 to $30 profit per steal, that a sufficiently motivated player could tread the prescribed $400 range for quite a while. That's all.


Tommy