[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
if you're convinced you're already drawing dead... ...then your pot odds are meaningless. If you're not already convinced that you're dead on the turn, then you shouldn't be worrying about making up bets on the river, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, please take a look at the "example ad absurdem" in the OP, as well as the formula that I made for raising the river (this was discussed but the formula was never published, afaik, in TOP). One more thing: C approaches, but never touches, 100%, with every further bet that goes into the pot.

The fact that we're having this discussion after I've written what I've written is proof that my "nit of the day" is valid, so it's nice to get some evidence of that, I guess, but I think everything that I've already written is clear, if approached with an open mind.

I'm still puzzled by two things, though:

1) How to measure the EV of checking vs betting when out of position, heads-up, on the river.

2) How to use reverse-implied odds to determine what our current pot odds should be, if we're to profitably call.

Just as a side-note, if you KNEW that you were going to raise the river and lose 98% of 3 bets, rather than call the river and lose 98% of one bet, it's still possible that you should call on the turn, knowing that you're going to get raped on the river, because it still might be worth it, depending on the answer to #2 above and the current size of the pot. This is similar to it being rational for you or I to play poker, and expect to profit, even if we fold all of our pat royal flushes.

--Dave.