Thread: Card Sharks
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Old 07-13-2005, 03:15 AM
PhantomeX PhantomeX is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4
Default Re: Card Sharks

You bet a percentage of your bankroll based on your odds. EG
first card 8, there are 27 cards that will lose if you bet lower, and 27 cards that will lose if you bet higher. This means that either way you are 24 to 27 against in other words bet 0 (higher or lower doesn't matter in this situation).
Second card is a Jack, there are now 15 cards that lose if you bet lower(35 that win), and 38 that lose if you bet higher (12 that win), you are now 70% favorite to win if you bet lower so you should bet an ammount based on 70 percent of your bankroll times your risk tolerance, if your hypothetical player is neither a risk taker nor a risk avoider this value coule be anywhere between .5 and 1.0, if you wanted you could add in a bell curve, for example

First card Ace, I would bet it all on lower myself the odds of another ace coming up being only 3 in 51 (about 6%) (94% of the time I make 1000 bucks and have the much larger stack to wager with for the rest of the game) (6% of the time I loose 1000 bucks and can't make any more money the rest of the game) If I could play this game 1,000,000 times (putting up my own money each new game) I would be make an average of $880.00 every time an ace came up as the first card. Whereas a standard play of 94% wager when Ace comes up as first card would average 827.20 of course with only being able to play once it doesn't matter too much what the possibilities are. This is probably why you would never see a setup like this in the Pit at any casino.
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