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Old 12-01-2005, 12:49 PM
aces_full aces_full is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 72
Default Re: When to fold the overpairs?

I have no real answer. When I get aces, I have a kung-foo death grip on them and I lose my stack nearly every time they get outflopped unless the flop is very scary. Even on the turn or river I will often pay off the flush or straight draw that just got there. Yet by far (and I have about 100K hands in PT) AA is my winningest hand with an 85% win rate overall and a 75% win rate at showdown. Out of all the hands where I was dealt AA and faced serious action on the flop, my hand was good on the flop 50% of the time when all the money went in.

My feeling is that trying too hard to look for folds when someone plays back at you when you hold an overpair is just second-guessing yourself without a good solid read on your opponent. Like you I find that when you have AA on a board of something like K35 you will more often find that you are getting action from a hand like KQ, or a hand like JJ on an undercard flop. I had a hand last night at $50 NL where I stacked a guy when he min-raised UTG, and I reraised from UTG+1 with AA. He called, and the flop was J9X. He checks, I bet pot, he pushes (He only had about $25 at start of hand anyway), I call. He shows QQ and MHIG. SOme of the time he will have JJ or even something like 99 or J9 here, but at least against low stakes bufoons, I think AA is good here more often than not.

However, my feeling is that this is a totally different situation from flopping TP/TK. With a hand like AA, your opponent often will not put you on a big overpair (or he may have a smaller overpair himself), but with AK on a flop of A83, the guy with A8 KNOWS what you have, and he can't wait to bust you.

Same thing with AA vs KK pre-flop. I have only folded KK pre-flop one time, and it turned out I was wrong-he had QQ, but in all, the times I get stacked on the losing end of KK vs AA are small in comparison to the total number of times I have been dealt KK.
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