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Old 10-29-2005, 08:20 PM
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Default Re: $20/$40 high: routine fold

Thank you Ben, and your response had me re-analyze the hand.
I think there were 5.2 sb listed on 4th street, so by calling he would be getting 6.2-1, close enough to what you said, but the reverse implied odds make his situation even worse. To see the river from 4th street, where there are 3.6 b bets in, he is going to have to put in 2.5 bets, and will be getting only 1.44-1, just to see the river. I started this further review, because driving in my car I forgot to include the other pair of J's as his possible pocket pair. So he could be favored, albiet slightly, over this one hand. I reviewed the betting, and realized I had completely missed the most obvious hand. If I read the converter correctly, the 7h is the first to call the bring in. He does so, then AFTER it is raised and comes around to him, he re-raises. So he passed his first chance to raise, then popped it. Did he get mad with the other J's "I know you don't have J's, I have 'em!"? Slow play two dead Q's? Not likely. Slow play K's or aces, very possible. Slow play 777? Ding ding ding ding, we have a winner. So the only unlikely hand we can beat on 4th street is the other pair of JJ. We also have the possible but unlikely QQ. With the obvious now staring me in the face, we have six combinations of sets we can be up against on the turn, K's or 7's, and three combinations of aces. So we have nine likely slow played possibilities (AA)7 (KK)7 (77)7, and two very unlikely ones, (JJ)7 (QQ)7. This combined with the reverse implied odds makes this an easy fold on fourth.
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