Thread: 10/20 97s
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Old 12-03-2005, 01:26 PM
krishanleong krishanleong is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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Default Re: 10/20 97s

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold to the flop raise. In the case where you have a live draw, you likely have only 7-8 outs, depending on how many A's are out. Even when you do turn your flush, a single A has 10 outs to a full house redraw. If he has a high club, well, then you're trying to dodge a third of the deck. The probability of someone having an ace plus the probability that someone may have a higher flush draw, as well as the slight probability the 2+2er already has a boat make this a fold on the flop, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this analysis is solid. I've never thought about folding a flush draw on the flop because I always think about having implied odds on big bet streets. If there ever was an example of weak implied odds with a flush, this is it.

That said I think you have to raise the turn. One card flushes and acec will call and call again on the river. It's easy to check/fold/be careful if the river double pairs or goes 4 flush. Getting 3-bet sucks but I think calling down would still be +EV because you can get 3-bet by trip aces once in a while.

Krishan
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