Re: Which street is worst?
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so basically Im betting to charge the lone clubs
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You're charging the lone clubs with queen high?
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why not? even if they have Ace or King high, arent I still getting value if they will fold the river when they miss?
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set up my river bluff
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When you bet the turn the pot is 4.75 BB. If we assume between 1 and 2 opponents will call the turn, you will risk 2BB (turn + river) to win either 5.75 BB or 6.75 BB (average of 6.25BB). This is about 3:1.
Sometimes these guys will hit their draws or, since they act first, can bluff before you can. Also it is possible that one does, in fact, hold a small pair (couldn't MP have 44 or 55?). And if one holds the ace of clubs you will often be called on the river. On top of that, you will sometimes be checkraised on the turn which won't allow you to complete your 2 barrel bluff and sometimes this causes you to forfeit some equity in the pot (if you have outs). The whole 2bet parlay just doesn't work enough. When you are on the river , however, the pot is pretty large since you bet the turn and your opponents river action (and the river card) give you information to make a +EV river bet.
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I think chances of them holding a small pair and chances of them checkraising are really small. I agree the parlay probably doenst work quite often enough, but I dont think its as bad as some have suggested.
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