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Old 12-26-2005, 01:38 AM
gumpzilla gumpzilla is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,401
Default Re: Simple push bot question

My first guess is that it's probably an iffy push, just because UTG 8-handed isn't such a great spot. How tight do you consider them here? Let's say you'll get called with a range of 99+, AQ-AK, which I think is a reasonable range in this steal-heavy part of a tournament. That's 68/1225 for about 5% of hands. So as a rough estimate, you're going to get called about 35% of the time, and your equity when you get called is about 35%. 65% of the time you profit 1.5 BBs, 35% of the time you are losing about 2 BBs, so it looks like it might be slightly +chip EV. I think I'd rather wait until later position, usually. And apologies if the math is off, I'm trying to do it roughly in my head.
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