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Old 12-23-2005, 02:55 AM
xJMPx xJMPx is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
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Default Re: ($55) ITM push, my heart says yes but my brain says no

I'll just add this, and you can take if for what it's worth. If he calls you, there is not a range that would make it +$EV for you. Ie., if you assume he will call you with any two, your best case 0 EV.

I'll leave it up to someone of figure out how often he has to fold to make this a push.

Edit: I just played around with SNGPT a little more, and ran some cases where Hero is open pushing into the big stack here. Even if the big stack is only calling with TT+,AQs+,AKo it is only +0.7% EV.

So, if we consider that if he calls it always -EV and that if were were open pushing he has to be real tight here to make it acceptably +EV we can conclude, with some degree of confidence, that this is a fold.

This is a real 'loose' analysis, but I think it works alright...thoughts?
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