Re: commerce hand
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if he won't bet an ace on the turn he's (semi)bluffing or has you crushed barring maybe top two, in which case you are better off check-folding or check-raising on the turn.
matt
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what about this addition? if you dont think he will bet his ace on the turn, then planning to check/call the turn then betting on several possible river bluff cards is not a good idea for another reason. this line is only really tempting when he bets the turn, and if there is a good chance he will check it behind, then you are stuck basically with a flush draw and a gutshot. this is because if a diamond falls, he will call your river bet too often since he thinks that your bluffing frequency increased dramatically when he checked the turn. so it is possible that if you know he will check behind with 1 pair on the turn a decent amount of the time, you may want to check planning to fold, bet, or check/raise more often than you would if you knew he would bet the turn. thoughts?
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