[PuertoKid]

[Mike, the guy who originally posted this on another place and was suprised to hear that is was on 2+2, asked me to post this response to rockin (don't ask me why he doesn't just create his own account)]

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Pot odds don’t apply here, since the tournament ends if villain calls hero’s all-in and wins the hand. There are only 3 relevant properties for villain to consider when deciding whether to call hero’s all-in:

pF – the probability of villain placing in the top 9 if he folds to hero’s all in.

pW – the probability of villain winning the hand if he calls hero’s all-in.

pL – the probability of villain placing in the top 9 if he calls hero’s all-in and loses.

He should call an all-in if pF < pW + pL(1 – pW)

All three are hard to estimate of course, but pF must be pretty high. He’ll have 7000 chips with three shorter stacks of 6300, 4300, and 5100, with the blinds at 400-800 – all three of them would have to survive their allins for him to be even worried. pL is much lower; at 4300 he’s tied with the shortest stack and due to post the blinds first. It’s definitely less than 50%.