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But if we drop 300BB we have to say that our probability of losing 500BB is now higher than it was before.

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Lets say that happens, we are covering the variance, not that we are less than a break even player, there is a difference. To me, when people say they are moving down, tells me they are not a break even player in which case your BR doesn't mean much.



[/ QUOTE ]You just have to be aware that the probability of losing your roll went up 10-fold. It's like betting black on a roulette wheel. If you find a bankroll that started at 500BB and it's now at 100BB, you can't say, "Well we figured that at 500BB this bankroll had almost a zero chance of busting." That is like walking up to a roulette wheel that has spun black 15 times in a row and putting $10K on red because the odds of it being black 16 times in a row is so small... The original gambler's fallacy.

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There is a difference between a streak and each individual event. We are betting on a streak than each individual event like in roulette. Were not just playing one hand of poker but a life long amount of hands (never ending so to speak). Again were at least a break even player with a calculated BR to cover variance. While there is always the chance of going bust, I believe you shouldn't move down unless you lose your BR. Then and only then will this tell you odds are you are not a break even player at those stakes and or possibly at any stakes.